Ulysses

Its backtest

What the strategy did on the history it was tested on, from 8 May 2012 to 30 July 2026, as BotFactoryFX measured it when it went into quarantine, with the costs it pays there. A simulated account of 10,000 in the market’s currency, with a fixed size; every figure in % of that account.

Trades

77 in 14.2 years, 0.5 a month

Won

84%

Profit factor

3.28

Result

+194.7%

Worst drawdown

−22.2%

Average per trade

+2.53%

Average win · average loss

+4.31% · −7.10%

Best trade · worst trade

+9.09% · −15.64%

Longest losing streak

2 trades in a row

Years in loss

1 of 15

The result, trade after trade

Its drawdowns

How far below its previous high it was at each closed trade: what you would have had to sit through.

Year by year

The first and the last year are only part of a year.

How it was found and judged

BotFactoryFX found it in the October hunt on 16 October 2026.

Judge’s score

81/100 · Solid

On a similar market

the S&P 500: 75/100 · Solid

Judged on

history the search never saw, from 2 October 2022

History it was found on

from 19 January 2012 to 30 September 2026

Checks measured

13 of 13

The search came up with this idea in 6 of 60 runs. The version in quarantine is that rule on its own, rebuilt by hand in the program and judged there.

The judge is BotFactoryFX’s Reality Check: 13 checks on the strategy, nine of them on history the search never saw. Our bar to put one in quarantine is Solid, 75 or more, on its own market and again on a similar one, judged from the same date.

The judge’s report, check by check

As BotFactoryFX saved it on 16 October 2026: 81/100, Solid. Holds up, including on other instruments and other timeframes. No check failed outright.

• Out of samplePassed11 %

  Does it still work on history it never saw?

  Profit factor 2.87 in sample, 3.18 out of sample.

• Period consistencyWarning6 / 6

  Does the edge hold across time, or was it one lucky stretch?

  6 of 6 windows closed in profit. The best window alone is 43% of the gains — the result leans on one stretch rather than repeating.

• Walk-forwardPassed2.81

  On history it never saw, would it survive being re-tuned as you went along?

  Re-tuned on past data only, the forward trades come out at profit factor 2.81 over 23 trades, profitable in 3 of 4 windows; the tuning picked different settings in 1 of them.

• Other instrumentsPassed79 %

  Does the edge exist anywhere else, or only here?

  The same rules stay profitable on USA500IDXUSD, USA30IDXUSD. An edge that survives a change of instrument is harder to explain away as a fit to this history. There it was measured only from 2022-10-02, the stretch this one never saw: before that is the history it was built on. Its distances in pips were scaled to each instrument's typical bar: USA500IDXUSD ×0.33, USA30IDXUSD ×0.33.

• Other timeframesPassed98 %

  Does the edge survive on another clock, or only on these bars?

  Rebuilt on other clocks it keeps 98 % of its edge — H4 1.87 · W1 4.62, against 3.28 on the original. The edge is not an artefact of where the bars were cut.

• Better than chanceWarningP76

  On history it never saw, does it beat that same history with the direction of each bar drawn at random?

  Versions of that same unseen history with the direction of each bar drawn at random beat it 19 times out of 80. Profit factor 3.18 against a median of 1.62: better than chance, but not by a margin worth much.

• Parameter sensitivityPassed98 %

  Does it still work, on unseen history, if the numbers were slightly different?

  Nearby settings keep 98 % of the edge — a plateau, not a lucky point.

• DrawdownPassed13.4 %

  How deep underwater did you have to sit? A warning only: it does not count toward the score.

  Your statement would show 11.1 %, but open positions were 13.4 % underwater at the worst point — that is what you would actually have had to hold through.

• Monte CarloPassedPF 1.39

  On history it never saw, how bad does it look if the trades had fallen differently — or without its best ones?

  Resampling the 25 trades it took on unseen history 1000 times, the profit factor of the worst 5 % is 1.44 one by one, 1.39 in blocks of 3 consecutive trades, and 2.48 skipping one in ten at random; the worst of the three, 1.39, is the score. Without its 1 best trade it is 2.99.

• Sample sizePassedt = 2.6

  On history it never saw, is the average trade distinguishable from zero?

  Over 25 trades on unseen history the average result stands 2.6 standard errors from zero — short of the 3 this asks for, so the edge could still be noise. The three best account for 18 % of gross profit.

• Cost tolerancePassed> 30 pips

  How much broker cost can it absorb before the edge dies?

  The edge is far larger than any plausible execution cost.

• PerturbationPassed86 %

  On history it never saw, does it hold up if that stretch had begun elsewhere and its prices had wobbled?

  Started at 40 random points of the unseen stretch with prices nudged by up to 15% of ATR, it keeps 86 % of its edge — profit factor 3.18 untouched against 2.88 in the middle of the runs, and 1.89 in the worst tenth.

• Bar resolutionPassedunambiguous

  Does it hold up when measured on finer bars?

  No exit depended on the order in which the high and the low happened inside a bar, so nothing here rests on an assumption about it.

What the report does not cover

• Everything above was measured on 4,147 bars — 14 years 8 months, 2012-01-19 to 2026-09-30. Nothing here was tested outside that window.
• That window does not include the 2008 collapse, so no check above could tell you what this strategy does in one.

Live, in quarantine

Since 16 October 2026, on prices it had never seen, with closed trades only.

Quarantine verdict: Too early to tell

At its backtest’s pace, by now it would have closed about 0.3 trades and made +0.8%.

Its closed trades

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